Public school enrollment is forecast to decline in all but nine states over the next five years, with states including California and Hawaii projected to lose more than 15% of their student populations.
The numbers are based on research, including a report from Bellwether. And although many of the steepest declines are in states such as New York, Oregon and New Mexico, which don’t offer school choice, one researcher warns that education freedom could take some of the blame.
“The projections have nothing to do with school choice,” writes Michael McShane, national research director for EdChoice, noting the “large declines in California, Oregon, and New York, states that aren’t going to see private school choice in the timeframe that these projections cover.
“Nevertheless, I expect choice to be blamed for the sorry condition of state and district finances as they wrestle with demographic decline.”
